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UPSC Civil Services Main Examination 2015 Syllabus: Statistics Paper-II

1.  Industrial Statistics: Process and product control, general theory of control charts, different types of control charts for variables and attributes, X, R, s, p, np and c charts, cumulative sum chart. Single, double, multiple and sequential sampling plans for attributes, OC, ASN, AOQ and ATI curves, concepts of producer’s and consumer’s risks, AQL, LTPD and AOQL, Sampling plans for variables, Use of Dodge-Roming tables.
Concept of reliability, failure rate and reliability functions, reliability of series and parallel systems and other simple configurations, renewal density and renewal function, Failure models: exponential, Weibull, normal, log normal.
Problems in life testing censored and truncated experiments for exponential models.

2.  Optimization Techniques: Different types of models in Operations Research, their construction and general methods of solution, simulation and Monte-Carlo methods formulation of linear programming (LP) problem, simple LP model and its graphical solution, the simplex procedure, the two-phase method and the M-technique with artificial variables, the duality theory of LP and its economic interpretation, sensitivity analysis, transportation and assignment problems, rectangular games, two-person zero-sum games, methods of solution (graphical and algebraic).
Replacement of failing or deteriorating items, group and individual replacement policies, concept of scientific inventory management and analytical structure of inventory problems, simple models with deterministic and stochastic demand with and without lead time, storage models with particular reference to dam type.
Homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains, transition probability matrix, classification of states and ergodic theorems, homogeneous continuous-time Markov chains, Poisson process, elements of queuing theory, M/M/1, M/M/K, G/M/1 and M/G/1 queues.
Solution of statistical problems on computers using well-known statistical software packages like SPSS.
3. Quantitative Economics and Official Statistics: Determination of trend, seasonal and cyclical components, Box-Jenkins method, tests for stationary series, ARIMA models and determination of orders of autoregressive and moving average components, forecasting.
Commonly used index numbers-Laspeyre's, Paasche's and Fisher's ideal index numbers, chain-base index number, uses and limitations of index numbers, index number of wholesale prices, consumer prices, agricultural production and industrial production, test for index numbers - proportionality, time-reversal, factor-reversal and circular .
General linear model, ordinary least square and generalized least squares methods of estimation, problem of multicollinearity, consequences and solutions of multicollinearity, autocorrelation and its consequences, heteroscedasticity of disturbances and its testing, test for independence of disturbances, concept of structure and model for simultaneous equations, problem of identification-rank and order conditions of identifiability, two-stage least square method of estimation.
Present official statistical system in India relating to population, agriculture, industrial production, trade and prices, methods of collection of official statistics, their reliability and limitations, principal publications containing such statistics, various official agencies responsible for data collection and their main functions.
4. Demography and Psychometry: Demographic data from census, registration, NSS other surveys, their limitations and uses, definition, construction and uses of vital rates and ratios, measures of fertility, reproduction rates, morbidity rate, standardized death rate, complete and abridged life tables, construction of life tables from vital statistics and census returns, uses of life tables, logistic and other population growth curves, fitting a logistic curve, population projection, stable population, quasi-stable population,  techniques in estimation of demographic parameters, standard classification by cause of death, health surveys and use of hospital statistics.
 Methods of standardisation of scales and tests, Z-scores, standard scores, T-scores, percentile scores, intelligence quotient and its measurement and uses, validity and reliability of test scores and its determination, use of factor analysis and path analysis in psychometry.

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